Official Report: Updated Election Results March 12, 2012
Posted by Laurier Student Poll in WLUSU Election 2012.Tags: Official Report
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As the dust has settled, our final report has been updated to include the newly elected CICDA President. Click on the image to the left to access the report.
Any questions or comments in regards to the report can be posted here, or sent to our Executive directly at laurierstudentpoll@wlusp.com.
Official Report: Election Day Poll February 9, 2012
Posted by Laurier Student Poll in WLUSU Election 2012.Tags: Election Day Poll, Official Report
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Election Day Poll
The Election Day Poll brings to a close our Official Report series on the 2012 WLUSU Election. This poll surveyed 491 respondents across Laurier Waterloo and Laurier Brantford, with a margin of error of 4.71 percentage points among those who indicated they may vote. The projection for each presidential candidate came within this margin of error. In total, Laurier Student Poll’s projections had a total error of only 9.3 percentage points. These deviations can largely be explained by the small sample size and the 24% of respondents who indicated that they may vote, but were undecided. This report details the findings of this Election Day Poll.
Without Further Ado February 6, 2012
Posted by Laurier Student Poll in WLUSU Election 2012.Tags: Official Report
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Without further ado, Laurier Student Poll in partnership with the WLUSU Election Team is proud to present the final results of the 2012 WLUSU Election.
You can expect to see our analyses of the Election Day Poll and an amalgamation of all data in the coming days.
Congratulations February 3, 2012
Posted by Laurier Student Poll in WLUSU Election 2012.Tags: Election Day Poll, Michael Onabolu
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Laurier Student Poll would like to offer our formal congratulations to Mike Onabolu, the newly elected WLUSU President & CEO.
Results from our Election Day Poll will be available later today. Stay tuned for updates!
Business, Science & Voter Certainty February 2, 2012
Posted by Laurier Student Poll in WLUSU Election 2012.Tags: Campaign Period Poll
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In analyzing student elections, one of the challenges Laurier Student Poll has faced has been determining which demographics matter. Recent polls indicate an interesting difference between the voting tendencies of the faculties at Laurier. More than 60% of students in the Business faculty claim to be either likely or certain to vote. On the other hand, Science students are less set into their decision to vote. 70% are either likely or not likely to vote. As these are the two middle options on the questionnaire, we can determine that most Science students are on the edge regarding whether or not they will vote. Overall, we can see that business students are more confident in their decision to vote and that Science students are much more hesitant to vote at all.
Written by Dylan Gimpelj (First Year, Economics).
Battle of the Brands February 2, 2012
Posted by Laurier Student Poll in WLUSU Election 2012.Tags: Campaign Period Poll, Jenny Solda, Michael Onabolu, Nolan Kreis
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The campaigns are in full motion. Each candidate has had more time this past week to get their name out amongst voters and have their voices heard to increase their support. Of particular interest in this respect is “branding.” The chart below depicts knowledge (represented by the number of candidates an individual could name) according to who the candidate stated they were likely to support. Does knowledge about the candidate(s) predict vote intention?
Most noticeable here is that forty-five percent of Nolan Kreis’ supporters were unable to name any candidates and under five percent could name all four candidates. Considering that Kreis also shows the fewest supporters in the Campaign Period Poll, there is no surprise here. The trend is not due to any fault by Kreis himself, but instead is reflective of the focus that the other candidates have placed on Brantford, or lack there of.
In contrast, the most even spread of support is for Jenny Solda. Solda has managed to resonate with a wide variety of students. This is evident in the above chart, which shows her support most evenly distributed between those with both high and low knowledge.
Michael Onabolu receives a clear peak of support among students who have heard of him and no other candidates. There is no denying however, that he also has an impressive showing by students who are aware of some or all other candidates.
The biggest difference between the two frontrunners can be found in the diversity of the knowledge base of their supporters. While Solda seems to be holding her own amongst knowledgeable and unknowledgeable students alike, Onabolu seems to be stronger the less a voter knows about other candidates.
Written by Alex Haladyn (First Year, Political Science).
The Big Picture February 1, 2012
Posted by Laurier Student Poll in WLUSU Election 2012.Tags: Campaign Period Poll, Spatial Analysis
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These maps are the second in a series of maps that will spatially plot trends in the 2012 WLUSU Election.
This part of the series illustrates the findings of the Campaign Period Poll, specifically noting voter intention by polling location. The maps were finalized before Zahra Sultani removed her candidacy for WLUSU President, and as a result her data is still present.
If you would like to compare this data to that of the Early Bird Poll, you can find the other maps here.
Neck & Neck February 1, 2012
Posted by Laurier Student Poll in WLUSU Election 2012.Tags: Campaign Period Poll, Jenny Solda, Michael Onabolu, Nolan Kreis, Zahra Sultani
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*Editor’s Note: This article was written before Zahra Sultani had dropped out of the running for WLUSU President.
In the concluding week of the 2012 WLUSU Election campaign, the race for president is neck and neck. The results from our Campaign Period Poll show that Michael Onabolu is leading with 19% of those who may vote, while Jenny Solda is running in second place with 18%. Zahra Sultani and Nolan Kreis are presently sitting in third and fourth with 7% and 5% respectively.
Recall that voter attrition is a measure of how many people who will support a candidate will actually turn out on voting day. Last week, this column discussed the potential effects of voter attrition on the election. It was discovered that the Sultani and Kreis campaigns had run into the challenge of getting their supporters to vote on election day. This was due to the fact that much of their intended support (29% and 27% respectively) claimed to be likely non-voters.
The Campaign Period Poll conducted last week provides some similar results. 21% of Kreis’ intended supporters are classified as non-voters, while the same is true for 26% of Sultani’s supporters. What is most interesting concerns the recent poll’s numbers for Onabolu and Solda. The former’s support includes 17% indicated non-voters while the latter’s support indicates 27% as non-voters.
As demonstrated in the graph, these differences in likelihood to vote, play a significant role on vote intention. The net effect would remove 32 percentage points from the pie chart below. Each colour represents a different candidate: Solda in blue, Onabolu in red, Sultani in yellow, Kreis in green and uncertain in grey. The darker colour marks those who are “certain” or “likely” to vote, whereas the lighter colour marks those who are “not likely” to vote.
Written by Alex Fitzgerald-Black (Fourth Year, Political Science).
Official Report: Campaign Period Poll January 31, 2012
Posted by Laurier Student Poll in WLUSU Election 2012.Tags: Campaign Period Poll, Jenny Solda, Michael Onabolu, Nolan Kreis, Official Report, Zahra Sultani
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Official Report: Campaign Period Poll
In our second poll for the WLUSU campaign, conducted between January 23 and 27, the presidential race has tightened; Michael Onabolu has picked up ground, increasing from 11% to 19%, as has Jenny Solda, from 15% to 18%. This puts the two candidates in an exceptionally close race. After another week of campaigns, fewer students who stated that they may vote are undecided, with only 51%, compared to 64% in the Early Bird Poll. Zahra Sultani and Nolan Kreis both trail, with less than 10% of popular support.
You can read the full report here, or check out our summary that will be published in this week’s Cord here.
New Kids on the Block had a Bunch of Hits January 30, 2012
Posted by Laurier Student Poll in WLUSU Election 2012.Tags: Early Bird Poll, Jenny Solda, Michael Onabolu, Nolan Kreis, Zahra Sultani
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As discussed yesterday with Candidate Buzz, year of study has provided interesting results in terms of early support for the WLUSU Presidential candidates. Focusing today on voter intention by year of study, we have broken the student population into three groups: first, the new kids on the block, consisting of those who began their studies in 2011 and 2010; followed by those who began studying in 2009; and lastly, the voting veterans are those who began studying in 2008 or earlier.
|
Kreis |
Onabolu |
Solda |
Sultani |
|
|
Voting Veterans |
0 |
11 |
5 |
1 |
|
Third Years |
4 |
7 |
12 |
8 |
|
New Kids on the Block |
11 |
24 |
39 |
9 |
The results show that Solda has a strong hold on those who began studying at Laurier in 2009 or earlier. Providing that trends stay the same as our Early Bird Poll results, Solda will do well in terms of popular support due to her wide appeal to multiple demographics at Laurier.
Onabolu dominates the veteran support, and is a strong second with the younger voters. Unfortunately, the veterans are unlikely to have much invested in the 2012-2013 year as the majority of them are likely to graduate. With these conclusions being drawn from such premature data, it is likely that Onabolu will have time to capitalize on the other demographics to increase his appeal to voters who will have a more vested interest in who wins this election, and as a result those who are more likely to vote.
Neither Kreis, nor Sultani has a direct claim to any demographic. This information is not as tragic as it may seem though; if they are able to effectively campaign to all three demographics, the combined support could overthrow the dominant hold of one specific demographic. A strategic appeal to the masses instead of focusing on one particular group could be the deciding factor in winning this election.
Written by Danielle Cudmore (Fifth Year, Political Science).
